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The 2026-2027 El Niño: what we know

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    • Timeline added: NOAA declared that El Niño conditions had formed in the tropical Pacific and issued an El Niño Advisory.
    • Timeline added: The WMO said a strong El Niño was developing and would keep strengthening through August, September and October.
    • Timeline added: The WMO said El Niño was firmly established and gave a near 100% chance that it lasts through February 2027.
    • Timeline added: NOAA put the chance of a very strong El Niño this autumn and winter at more than 90%.
    • Timeline added: UNICEF says El Niño could expose more than 347 million children, in nearly 100 countries and territories, to unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December.
    • Confirmed: NOAA declared that El Niño conditions had formed in the tropical Pacific and issued an El Niño Advisory.
    • Confirmed: The WMO said a strong El Niño was developing and would keep strengthening through August, September and October.
    • Confirmed: NOAA also gave a 75% chance that the event becomes stronger than any El Niño in records going back to 1950.
    • Confirmed: In September, the Niño 3.4 index of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures went above the readings from every earlier El Niño, including 1997 and 2015.
    • Confirmed: The Met Office says El Niño makes dry weather more likely across parts of Indonesia, Australia, India and central and equatorial South America, while some other parts of South America and the southern US tend to turn wetter.
    • Confirmed: Papua New Guinea's government declared the event in June, set up a task force and approved a $112 million supplementary budget.
    • Confirmed: About 1.2 million people in Papua New Guinea are estimated to need direct food relief.
    • Open question: The Met Office says the heat released by El Niño could make next year the hottest in the global record that starts in 1850. This is a forecast, not an observation.
    • Open question: How strong the event will finally become is still uncertain, the Met Office says.
    • Source added: Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
    • Source added: El Niño declared for 2026 as Pacific warms (Met Office)
    • Source added: Strong El Niño expected to intensify (World Meteorological Organization)
    • Source added: El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026) (World Meteorological Organization)
    • Source added: UN warns El Nino could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades (Al Jazeera)
    • Source added: Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
    • Source added: From drought to deluge: ‘Super’ El Niño’s expanding reach (UN News)